50% of firms at risk in early 2023
The poll, carried out on Tuesday 3 January, showed 53.7% of the 206 NTIA members surveyed did not make enough profit to cover cash reserve requirements during the festive period with trade down 16% on New Year’s Eve and 21% across December as a whole compared with 2019.
NTIA CEO Michael Kill said: "With operating costs continuing to increase, rent and VAT due in January and the media talking about the Government halving the current energy subsidy scheme, we are faced with a challenging Q1 2023, with many trying to find a pathway through the uncertainty."
Impact on trade
According to the survey, 35.8% of operators believed they had enough cash reserves to survive more than four months under the current operating cost conditions, while more than a quarter (25.4%) said between one and two months, 23.9% said between two and three months, 10.4% said between three and four months and 4.5% answered up to one month.
This comes as recent figures from Altus Group revealed 32 pubs a month disappeared in 2022.
Additionally, 46.3% of respondents felt a decline in consumer disposable income had impacted trade the most during the festive period with cost inflation (26.9%), industrial action (16.4%) and the weather (6%) also cited as having had a big effect.
Biggest challenges
Moreover, 85.9% of operators claimed a VAT reduction in the March Budget would have the greatest impact on the survival of their businesses while 60.9% and 28.1% respectively felt an energy freeze cap or an alcohol duty freeze would be most beneficial.
Kill added: "It is clear that inflationary pressures, both business and domestic, have caused the most damage, with Industrial action impacting cities and large towns reliant on consumer mobility at night.
"This is one of the biggest challenges the industry has faced, for many a greater crisis than the pandemic, with many businesses being left on the edge trying to survive.
"We will not accept that there will be casualties of this crisis and urge the Government to be clear with its intentions on energy and the coming March budget before it’s too late."
